Weather monitoring: Atlantic hurricane season could finally start to get agitated | Hurricanes

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The Atlantic hurricane season has so far confounded forecasts for an active year, with only three named storms so far, none of which were of hurricane strength. In fact, so far this August joins 1997 and 1961 in having no named storms.

However, there are three months of season left and activity is starting to pick up in the tropics. A cluster of storms in the central Atlantic has the potential to organize enough to become the first named storm since Colin in early July. If that happens, it could move west and approach the Leeward Islands, bringing the threat of heavy rain towards the end of this week, but it is unlikely to turn into a major storm at this point.

Many hurricanes begin their life cycle as a “tropical wave”, often just off the West African coast. These “waves” are large areas of low pressure with associated thunderstorms. Currently, this potential tropical system is just one of those waves and it is not guaranteed to develop further.

In Pakistan, the monsoon season has brought extreme flooding with more than 1,000 people killed in the past week and potentially millions displaced. While Pakistan and India are no strangers to severe flooding during the monsoon, the severity and scale this year is unusual. Fortunately, no further significant rain is expected over the next few days as the end of the monsoon season approaches.

Finally, a new wave of summer heat is expected to affect large swaths of North America in the coming days. Temperatures in many western US states will hit 30 degrees Celsius, with well over 40°C (104°F) possible in California by the end of the week. This heat will spread across southern Canada, with temperatures well into the 30s. This represents a deviation of about 10C from the seasonal norm. However, in contrast, parts of Texas and Mexico will have temperatures “struggling” to reach the mid-20s. That would be around 5-7C below average.

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