Joint USAF / NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast November 29, 2021

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Joint USAF / NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast November 29, 2021

Status report from: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday November 29 2021

Joint USAF / NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and SDF Forecast Number 333 issued at 2200Z November 29, 2021 IA. Analysis of active solar regions and activity from 28 / 2100Z to 29 / 2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Forecast of solar activity: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a risk of class C flares on days one, two and three (November 30, December 01, December 02). IIA. Summary of geophysical activity 28 / 2100Z to 29 / 2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at calm to active levels for the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed peaked at 397 km / s at 29 / 0515Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28 / 2326Z. The maximum southern component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29 / 0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV in geosynchronous orbit reached a maximum level of 214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical activity forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at calm levels on days one, two and three (November 30, December 01, December 02). III. Event probabilities Nov 30-Dec 02 Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Observed Flux Nov 29, 090 Forecast Nov 30-Dec 02 092/092/090 Average over 90 days Nov. 29, 088 V. Geomagnetic indices A observed Afr / Ap 28 Nov. 007/006 Estimated Afr / Ap 29 Nov. 007/010 Afr predicted / Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec. 006 / 005-005 / 005-006 / 005 VI. Probabilities of geomagnetic activity Nov 30-Dec 02 A. Medium latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major to severe storm 01/01/01 B. High latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10 / 10

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